Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Mr Boring wrote:

There's not been a single mention of the word 'value' in this thread.

No real point in trying to discuss 'value' in my humble - far too subjective. 

I fall into the camp of bigger stakes on odds-on bets where plenty of my mates prefer smaller stakes on huge odds.  We've been over it and over it - neither side will agree to the others' definition of 'value'.  And, to be honest, over the course of a day at the races and/or a football season or whatever, neither camp is better off than the other.

For what it's worth though 4/9 Man City to beat Cardiff is 'value' as far as I'm concerned...

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Dermo wrote:
Presto wrote:
Dermo wrote:

Just taken the city bet. Big mistake as i'm only doing if for damage limitation on yesterdays reg. Never works.

Chasing the losses. Never a good move.

Nope and if it wasn't for this thread there's no way id have known about/ taken it LOL

You can't go wrong with a Martingale system!

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

With my luck I can fuck 50/50 up no problem.

Part of the problem

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

smashdad wrote:

I fall into the camp of bigger stakes on odds-on bets where plenty of my mates prefer smaller stakes on huge odds.

Bookies try to offer bad value on every single bet they offer. But they really take the piss with longshots, first goalscorer and correct score markets. So in the long run you and your mates will all lose money but I'd wager your mates will have the bailiffs round sooner.

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

That guy on talksport the other day who was a bookie was funny saying you cant win, we gear it like that. You can only have a good day now and then but essentially my house will always be a lot bigger than yours LOL

Part of the problem

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Mr Boring wrote:

Bookies try to offer bad value on every single bet they offer.

Aye - it's a mug's game - every fucker knows that.  They fucking should do anyway or they're heading for problems.

Mr Boring wrote:

But they really take the piss with longshots, first goalscorer and correct score markets. So in the long run you and your mates will all lose money but I'd wager your mates will have the bailiffs round sooner.

Agreed.  Some of the less obvious markets offer decent 'value' a lot of the time - 'clean sheet' and 'both teams to score' for example - especially when combined into a 2, 3 or 4 fold accumulator.

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Dermo wrote:

That guy on talksport the other day who was a bookie was funny saying you cant win, we gear it like that. You can only have a good day now and then but essentially my house will always be a lot bigger than yours LOL

Some individuals beat them and beat them regularly* - bookies barely give a fuck though 'cos the VAST amount of mug-cunt-punters** have got neither a clue nor a hope.

...edit...
* I am not one of them
** I am one of them

Last edited by smashdad (Sunday Aug 2013 07:30:31)

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

smashdad wrote:

For what it's worth though 4/9 Man City to beat Cardiff is 'value' as far as I'm concerned...

Should absolutely thump them. It's almost printing money.

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

smashdad wrote:
Dermo wrote:

That guy on talksport the other day who was a bookie was funny saying you cant win, we gear it like that. You can only have a good day now and then but essentially my house will always be a lot bigger than yours LOL

Some individuals beat them and beat them regularly* - bookies barely give a fuck though 'cos the VAST amount of mug-cunt-punters** have got neither a clue nor a hope.

...edit...
* I am not one of them
** I am one of them

Yeh I think he was talking on a global scale.


I don't reckon a lot of people make a lot out of the footy. Its your hard core nag fanciers.

Part of the problem

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Dermo wrote:

I don't reckon a lot of people make a lot out of the footy. Its your hard core nag fanciers.

I think a lot of big-time successful punters make a lot of their money on the in-play markets.

Ante-post odds on a big favourite (Snooker/darts/tennis/etc) can change considerably if they lose the first frame/leg/set/etc - and the guys who've got the time to be on top of all that sort of detail lump on and benefit when the class act turns it around.  Done it myself a couple of times - but literally only a couple of times - US Open coming up will be a good example - Murray loses a first set and his odds will plummet from 1/50 to 6/1 - punters who trust Murray to turn it round over five sets lump on and will get paid nine times out of ten.

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Hmmm food for thought that is LOL

Part of the problem

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

smashdad wrote:
Mr Boring wrote:

But they really take the piss with longshots, first goalscorer and correct score markets. So in the long run you and your mates will all lose money but I'd wager your mates will have the bailiffs round sooner.

Agreed.  Some of the less obvious markets offer decent 'value' a lot of the time - 'clean sheet' and 'both teams to score' for example - especially when combined into a 2, 3 or 4 fold accumulator.

For example...
https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc3/1175269_10151556847692551_717520531_n.jpg

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

smashdad wrote:

Murray loses a first set and his odds will plummet from 1/50 to 6/1 - punters who trust Murray to turn it round over five sets lump on and will get paid nine times out of ten.


There is absolutely no way that odds would go from 1/50 to 6/1 to win outright. For starters, for odds to be that short he'd have to playing a piss poor opponent. If he lost the first set he'd still be favourite to win. You might get 1/20 instead. wink

I know it was just an example but still, the bookies aren't *that* stupid.

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Presto wrote:
smashdad wrote:

Murray loses a first set and his odds will plummet from 1/50 to 6/1 - punters who trust Murray to turn it round over five sets lump on and will get paid nine times out of ten.


There is absolutely no way that odds would go from 1/50 to 6/1 to win outright. For starters, for odds to be that short he'd have to playing a piss poor opponent. If he lost the first set he'd still be favourite to win. You might get 1/20 instead. wink

I know it was just an example but still, the bookies aren't *that* stupid.

Au contraire mate - and this is my point - the in-play odds can swing violently 'cos they reflect the flow of money during the game and NOT the quality of players contesting it. 

You're right - it was just an example but I based it on experience - did it once with Federer at (I think) the French Open earlier this year.  Also done similar with Phil Taylor at the PDC Worlds and Higgins in some snooker.

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

smashdad wrote:
Mr Boring wrote:

Smashy, what odds do you have on that Ashes bet?

Placed them on Thursday afternoon as soon as Australia declared - think I had 8/13 on the follow on and 8/15 on the draw - £10 on each

Hmmmm - Australia set England 227 to win from 44 overs - interesting - I reckon that's a thrown the cat right amongst the pigeons - odds on an England victory are 10/1 from 200/1 at lunch...

I'd back them to get that if it was a 50 over game.  It wouldn't be inconceivable in a T20 innings.

Eight off the first over and odds dropped to 9/1 in the course of typing this...!!

*edit*

fuck it - dropped a couple of quid @ 8/1
*chuckles*

Last edited by smashdad (Sunday Aug 2013 08:36:58)

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

smashdad wrote:
smashdad wrote:
Mr Boring wrote:

Smashy, what odds do you have on that Ashes bet?

Placed them on Thursday afternoon as soon as Australia declared - think I had 8/13 on the follow on and 8/15 on the draw - £10 on each

Hmmmm - Australia set England 227 to win from 44 overs - interesting - I reckon that's a thrown the cat right amongst the pigeons - odds on an England victory are 10/1 from 200/1 at lunch...

I'd back them to get that if it was a 50 over game.  It wouldn't be inconceivable in a T20 innings.

Eight off the first over and odds dropped to 9/1 in the course of typing this...!!

4.5 per over. Game on, ive stayed up for it. Fuck work. England were 3/1 a min ago.

Last edited by Dermo (Sunday Aug 2013 08:40:32)

Part of the problem

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

smashdad wrote:

365 were doing 11/10 to win at half time and full time or 9/4 to win both halves.

Sincerely hope City don't join my 'cunt list' today - got a fair bit riding on them and fairly sure I'm not alone in that...

Have they joined the list?

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Presto wrote:
smashdad wrote:

365 were doing 11/10 to win at half time and full time or 9/4 to win both halves.

Sincerely hope City don't join my 'cunt list' today - got a fair bit riding on them and fairly sure I'm not alone in that...

Have they joined the list?

No mate - they will if they i) don't score and/or ii) don't win...

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Ah. Was wondering if you'd stuck the first half win on as well.

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Presto wrote:

Ah. Was wondering if you'd stuck the first half win on as well.

Yeah, did - but only an amount that will be much more than covered by winnings if they i) score and/or ii) win
smile

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Fair do. Citeh better not spoil my accumulator. Think they'll score though.

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Odds dropped to 4-1 for England win on Betfair, I've just thrown away £20 on it.

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

smashdad wrote:
smashdad wrote:
Mr Boring wrote:

Smashy, what odds do you have on that Ashes bet?

Placed them on Thursday afternoon as soon as Australia declared - think I had 8/13 on the follow on and 8/15 on the draw - £10 on each

Hmmmm - Australia set England 227 to win from 44 overs - interesting - I reckon that's a thrown the cat right amongst the pigeons - odds on an England victory are 10/1 from 200/1 at lunch...

I'd back them to get that if it was a 50 over game.  It wouldn't be inconceivable in a T20 innings.

Eight off the first over and odds dropped to 9/1 in the course of typing this...!!

*edit*

fuck it - dropped a couple of quid @ 8/1
*chuckles*


England's run rate required has actually risen since the start of the innings but their odds are still dropping - now at 5/1...

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Presto wrote:

Fair do. Citeh better not spoil my accumulator. Think they'll score though.

ooops

Part of the problem

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Sometimes it's worth it for a good chuckle at Citeh.

Should still win.